Gitsie Girl’s Thoughts on “The Variable”

LOST Theories, Season 5 View Comments

I was thinking about the choice of being able to take a pivotal moment in your life and change the event.  I’m sure all of us have at least one moment in our life where you wonder, “what if…”  But would you really change it if you could?  Should the Losties mess with their fate?  What if they were meant to die in that crash?  What if Jack manages to change the future and instead of crashing on the island, the plane crashes in the ocean and they die?  What does Jack have to go back to anyway that he’d want to change the crash?  Wouldn’t he be better changing his actions with Sarah, his dad or the drugs?

Click here for my initial thoughts.

1.  I don’t think the Mrs Hawking does know what happens next (she tells Penny in the hospital).  Let’s assume that she picks up the journal when she shoots Dan back in 1977.  She has the events up until the time that Dan goes back and then shoots him.  Now she doesn’t know what is going to happen because the journal ends.

2.  Why would Dan think that Jack and the others don’t belong there in 1977?  What does he know or what did he learn back in Ann Arbor that we haven’t learned yet?

3.  I think that when we see Eloise go to Dan playing the piano as a young boy, this isn’t a flashback, if you consider 1977 as the “present.”  I think that we are seeing her after she shoots him on the island and gets the journal.  That is how you would explain that she knows Dan has a destiny to be fulfilled.

4.  Everyone is in a jumpsuit except Juliet and she’s in a red “death shirt.”  I think that the writers are going to use the overworked plot device that someone is going to have to stay behind and die so that the others may live and return to modern times.  Juliet will be the one.  Think about it.  She loves Sawyer but knows the moment he calls Kate “Freckles” that their life there together is over.  She also still loves Jack.  She can save them both by sacrificing herself to get them back where they belong.  This is my prediction.

5. When Dan has Miles take him to the Orchid station and Pierre/Marvin pulls up, he looks at his watch and says, “right on time.”  OK, I can believe that Dan understands the physics of the island but how can he know the movements of Chang?

6.  And Dan spills the beans to Pierre about Miles knowing it will lead him to send the children off of the island.  How could he know this stuff?  I’m wondering if we are going to see that Dan is the one who made all the calculations under the church where older Mrs Hawkins talks to the Losites.  That is how he figured when the incident would be on the island and that is why he has to get back.

7. OK, the scene where Dan is crying over the news footage of the plane crash totally changes in the middle.  At the beginning Dan’s hair is wet and slicked back.  Then 30 seconds later it’s dry and longer.  Bad editing or does something in time change like it did with the pictures at the lady’s house that Miles “talked” to her dead son?

8.  There is never much product placement but turns out JJ Abrams is a guest editor for the magazine this month.  The magazine we see is “The Super Power” Issue from August 2003. Issue 11.08.  See a large picture of the cover here.

9.  When Dan approaches Charlotte I wonder if he tells her the same thing about not coming back to the island or if he tries something different this time.  If I were Dan I’d probably try a somewhat different strategy.

10. Dang, Jack sure is a good shot!  Is there anything he can’t do?

11.  If Dan’s plan is to detonate the hydrogen bomb, was he going to let them all die?  I didn’t hear anything in his plan about getting them out of there before he bombs them.  But, we also don’t really know why he wanted to see his mom on the island so badly.  Maybe she will be the catalyst to getting them back to current time.  Maybe in 1977 she sees the journal and knows she has to help the Losties get back to real time.

12.  And I think that Desmond is going to end up being the Variable.  Why would he let them change anything?  I can see him doing anything to preserve his path that leads him back to Penny.

Gitsiegirl.com

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  • rebecca
    i read that one of u said the ada, and eve in season one could be one of our losties .. i completely agree with that .. when one of the characters ( cnt rmember who) askd jack about the second skeleton jack replied its a female , round about 40-50 years old .. and jack also said that the male skeleton was about the same age .. there was also a corpse of a dog there ..
    i actually think that its bernard and rose with vincent the dog.. i dont know how exactly this is supposed to work but i think that it could actually make sense ..
    if rose and bernard were living in the 70's they couldve easily died and decayed by the time the losties crashed wic is in 2004 . another intersting point worth mentioning is that jack said it takes tens of years for clothing to decay like it did on the adam and eve ,another interesting fact is that rose was never spotted on the island untill the water had been found and everything . she was sitting on the other side of the beach and jack approached her offering her some water and sat there with her for a while until she agreed to come back .. i think that this part couldve been from the actual crash but the adam and eve could be from the time travel zone because in essence 2004 was their past while 1977 was their present .. so my theory is very much possible ..
    i just hope that the show ends with jack and kate together and happy .. they have been through too much and they deserve their happy ending ... if there is any couple in the show that truly deserves a fresh start its JATE .. they never had a fresh start for teir relationship ...the first time sawyer was in the way and the second time aaron was in the way , not to mention sawyers request from kate is what inevitably ripped jack and kate appart .. jack is a man with a bad past but he has tried to be the best man he can be and despite his troubled life he still makes the best of it .. jack slipping away in season 4 is understandable , he lost the love of his life , most of the people who survived the crash vanished and he thought that kate was having an affair .. after being cheated on by sarah , u cnt rilli blame ack for being paranoid ..
    all this was haunting him and he blamed himself because everyone depended on him .. they made him their leader ..

    the only true and fair way for LOST to END is to have jack and kate happy .. matthew mentioned that the ending will be very sad and confusing and stuff and he also said that team darlton was being very cryptic but it doesnt necessarily mean that JACK is the one who is gonna die .. i think it will end with sawyer dead wil juliet , kate ends up crushed and depressed but jack is there to pick her up and support her and this is where they get their fresh start .. claire ends up keeping her baby and living with jacks mother ..i know that sounds twisted but the storyline and ideas that damon has come up with for lost hasnt been short of insanity .. so this is a huge possibility because jacks mom actually lives in LA .. im not sure about jin and sun and the other newer characters ..i have a feling that jack and locke's final debate ,conflict and fight will result in jack getting hurt and that is when kate says "i dont want you to die"(i eard her voice in a trailer saying those words -im not sure for who tho) hearing kate, jack steps up and wins the battle over locke(the mysterious guy who killed jacob-not the real locke who is actually dead because jack was supposed to FIX it ,as we all know jack is destined to FIX things.. all im really hoping for is tht JATE WILL BE TOGETHER !! JATE IS FATE !that way i will feel like watching the show and keeping up with the storyline was actually worth it .. jack and kate has had very unstable and painful "daddy" issues in their lives , since they were children so that way , i think they can relate to one another and they complete each other ..
    it was said in an interview that if jack and kate were in a NYC trainstation (vey crowded) and passed each other they would actually be able to feel each others presence and sort of slow down and look around the station to see if they were actually there and connected ,u see this intense emotional and subconcious connection between them . u dont see that with kate ans sawyer .. all kate and sawyer have is a lusty relationship which is all about rebound sex and revenge and to make the jack jealous ..
    now can u all see which is the better couple ??:p
  • Okan
    I feel that they went to the Ancient time when the bomb exploded. They went there to built the statue. They will go to the US again. And turn back with Black Rock. But nothig is still in this show. So prediction is useless. We must wait and see...
  • I'd say the one thing Jack can't do is to actually carry out an emotionally open and stable relationship with Kate. ;)

    And... I continue to join the speculation about who Adam & Eve are - but I also want to know what the significance of the black and white stones is.
  • MadFan
    1. I don’t think the Mrs Hawking does know what happens next (she tells Penny in the hospital). Let’s assume that she picks up the journal when she shoots Dan back in 1977. She has the events up until the time that Dan goes back and then shoots him. Now she doesn’t know what is going to happen because the journal ends."

    How does Dan's journal tell Eloise that Des will be buying a ring to ask Penny in marriage? How does Dan's journal tell which jewellery shop is Des going to? How does Dan's journal say that the guy wearing sneakers will die from some construction works collapsing on him? There is more to it...

    ----

    "9. When Dan approaches Charlotte I wonder if he tells her the same thing about not coming back to the island or if he tries something different this time. If I were Dan I’d probably try a somewhat different strategy."

    Or so does everyone keep thinking until they do exactly the same thing they did the other time around...

    Sayid wants to change the future by killing Ben, but he leads him right into the Others' arms.
    Jack wants to change the future by not fixing Ben, but he leads him right into the Others' hospital (AKA Smokey's cursing-memory erasing-evil making- healing powers).

    ----


    "If Dan’s plan is to detonate the hydrogen bomb, was he going to let them all die? I didn’t hear anything in his plan about getting them out of there before he bombs them. But, we also don’t really know why he wanted to see his mom on the island so badly. Maybe she will be the catalyst to getting them back to current time. Maybe in 1977 she sees the journal and knows she has to help the Losties get back to real time."

    This gets a little complicated hehe. The Losties will die along with the DI, or from another incident. See, the "young" Losties from 1977 are at their homes, younger/not born yet. Now, the future Losties who crashed on the Island in 2004 are back on the Island. Whatever happens to the Losties from 2004 that went back in time to 1977 on the Island, the real Losties from the original timeline (Jack getting beatup by bullies for standing up to his friend, Locke getting conned for his kidney, Kate planning her escape when she gets older while getting abused by her real father....etc) doesn't matter. They will end up back on the Island in the future. Just to repeat the same actions the other group did before. Hmm.. Yeah getting so complicated -_-

    To make it easier:

    ABC = Losties who crashed in 2004 and went back in time
    DEF = Young people who later become the victims of Oceanic 815
    GHI = Young people who later become the victims of Oceanic 815 (AGAIN)

    ABC crashes on the Island, they go back in time. They spend their lifetime on the Island for years. Something happens to them and life goes on in the real world but the Losties are gone. Time goes by and it's 2004 again, now DEF crashes on the Island and repeat what ABC did. DEF goes through what ABC went through once before and time goes by. GHI crashes on the Island in 2004 again...

    And it goes on and on and on...


    Everytime someone thinks they are going to break the cycle, they actually do what they did before to actually force it into happening...


    Sayid wants to change the future by killing Ben, but he leads him right into the Others' arms.
    Jack wants to change the future by not fixing Ben, but he leads him right into the Others' hospital (AKA Smokey's cursing-memory erasing-evil making- healing powers).
    Dan tries to warn the DI from the purge, and Dr. Chang tries to make them evacuate. Dan gets himself killed in the process of trying to talk to his mother (Young Eloise).

    As you can see, Dan did warn Chang before - Chang did send some of the DI off the island - The magnetic accident did occur in the past where they built the computer and kept pushing the button - Sayid did shoot Ben before - Jack did abandon Ben so he'd be taken to the Others to be healed... Where does it end? How can you know that what you will do now is because NOW you KNOW better and you will actually FIX things...?

    Whatever happened, happened... Until someone goes completely against what they actually know for sure to be the right thing to do and does something they 100% don't believe in doing.

    Jack hates Ben for all he did, he doesn't want to help him. Despite that, he fixes little ben. Result -> Ben isn't taken to the Others.

    Saiyd has been manupilated by Ben and his life became so miserable. Despite that, he goes against his desire to kill him before he grows up to become the man that ruins his life and forgives him. Result -> Ben is never shot, doesn't need Jack's help and isn't taken to the others.

    ...etc.

    So the only way to break the "Whatever happened, happened" rule is to actually doubt yourself and do what you are 100% sure you don't want to do... Or so I believe.


    For some reason, I can't shake the feeling that in Season 1 Ep 4 or 5 when Jack finds the water by the caves; when he and Kate find the dead bodies (Adam and Eve?), they must belong to someone we know. It might be one of the Losties... I guess we'll find out in Season 6.
  • Bones
    For #9, I'm not sure what you mean by "try something different." For Dan, this is the first time he's talking to little Charlotte to get her off the island. He doesn't know what was done the first time.

    And #11, he needs to find his mom because she's the one he told to bury the bomb, and he's assuming she'd know where it is.
  • Calv1n
    I have been wondering if Sawyer and Juliet will turn out to be Adam & Eve. I agree that Eloise knew her son would die (in the scence with the piano and the metronome). I talked about this with friends, suggesting it is in the spirit of John 3:16). They laughed . . . . we'll see.
  • smiley
    Good thoughts... on #1, you are saying if she gets the journal in 1977 that she will know what will happen until 2004..when he time jumped? I wonder if shes meant to find the journal, or if kate and jack get it?
    #3 makes sense..i didn't think of that.
  • Roger
    maybe Juliet didnt say the true on the Bonnie Hunt show and probably she will die at the end of the season 5
  • Lostie
    Juliet confirmed in the Bonnie Hunt show last week that she survives the end of the season.
  • omelette
    Your #12 reminded me that Mrs. Hawking said (in the Lantern) that the island is not done with Desmond... so maybe she does know a bit more about what is going to happen...
  • omelette
    Your #1 is spot on, well said.

    #3 too, and I'll add to it:
    "That is how you would explain that she knows Dan has a destiny to be fulfilled" ...and not a lot of years left to live, so there is no time to waste.

    #7 makes me think they filmed/completed the scene on different occasions... just a continuity error.
  • dweebie69
    I agree that Juliet will die. I've felt it ever since La Fluer and when I saw the red shirt in Some like it Hoth, it sealed it.
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